WP1: Structural Determinants of Migration Crises
In this framework paper for WP1, Başak Yavçan (ULiège) outlines the methodology to measure migratory crises and assesses the structural determinants of these crisis as a way to produce future scenarios.
This deliverable from Başak Yavçan (ULiège) quantifies crisis in terms of numbers of rapid increases of outflows from countries of origin for a time period of 1960-2015 based on Abel (2017)’s migration stock to flow conversions and explores the impact of socio-economic drivers on these migratory movements across time, globally. Based on both origin country focused and gravity models with a dyadic focus, this working paper demonstrates the statistically significant effect of different socio-economic drivers such as poverty, inequality as well as the non-linear impact of GDP on crisis migrations, while also controlling for the effect of different demographic and political conflict related drivers.
This deliverable from Başak Yavçan (ULiège) builds on the previous one on quantifying “crisis migration” and aims to lay out the impact of various demographic drivers on these migratory movements via country of origin based and relational focuses dyadic models across the world for the years 1960 to 2015. With many demographic drivers showing statistically significant impact especially through being pull factors in destination countries, the results contribute to the discussion on the role of urbanization, labor market characteristics and human development indicators in important ways.
Building on the previous three outputs of this work package, this deliverable from Başak Yavçan (ULiège) aims to lay out the impact of both rapid onset and slow onset environmental changes on migratory movements, and in particular on critical increases in flows of migration, using Abel’s stock data to flow data conversions with 5-year intervals for the period of 1960-2015. The results are mixed and further confirm the importance of mediating effects of environmental changes. First, differentiating rapid onset changes based on their impact provides a more nuanced approach and underlines the importance of resilience and capabilities due to disasters’ growth reducing impacts. With regards to slow onset changes, the results reassert the relatively more important role of temperature as compared to precipitation (measured as variability) and contribute to the discussion on the conditional role of agriculture dependency, economic growth, and urbanization on environmentally induced migration.
WP2: Migration and Asylum Governance Through Times of Crises
An initial output of MAGYC’s second work package, this working paper by Shoshana Fine (ULiège) and Hélène Thiollet (Sciences Po) aims to study the ways in which European migration governance has been shaped by a ‘crisis’ discourse.
This paper by Meltem Muftuler-Bac (Sabanci University) analyses Turkish migration policies, the impact of the Syrian refugee crisis on altering these policies, the Turkish harmonization to the EU criteria, and the Turkey-EU refugee deal. The paper contributes to the MAGYC objectives by uncovering multiple challenges in the EU’s external migration strategies, as well as demonstrating the evolution of migration governance in Turkey as a key transit country in the EU’s periphery.
In this paper, Gerasimos Tsourapas (Sciences Po) compares the EU’s pre- and post-migration crisis response via a historical and political contextualisation of EU-Egypt relations going back to the 1977 EC-Egypt Cooperation Agreement. It pays particular attention to the transformation and evolution of EU cooperation instruments vis-à-vis Egypt – a pivotal migration state throughout its history. The paper also highlights the complexity of migration flows that the Southern Mediterranean country has managed – from labour emigration and immigration to transit and forced migration.
In this working paper, Gerasimos Tsourapas (Sciences Po) sheds light on the long tradition of hosting refugees within the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan in order to contextualise elites’ responses to the Syrian refugee crisis. Adopting a framework of ‘refugee rentierism,’ the paper highlights how the Jordan Compact, as well as a variety of policies adopted by the Jordanian state before and after 2016, have sought to ‘turn the refugee crisis into an opportunity’ for economic development.
This working paper from Tamirace Fakhoury (LAU) explores the EU’s refugee governing rationality in Lebanon with focus on the 2016 EU-Lebanon compact that was negotiated in the context of refugee flight from Syria.
WP3: Constructing the Crisis
In this framework paper, Céline Cantat (Sciences Po), Hélène Thiollet (Sciences Po), and Antoine Pécoud (Sciences Po), construct the 2015 “migration crisis” as a scientific object, moving away from the naturalisation of the crisis operated in media and political discourses and rather exploring the dynamics of migration crisis-making .
D3.2a Migration as Crisis in and across Europe Actors, strategies and representations (Special Issue Proposal)
D.3.2b Non-State Actors and the Politics of Migration Crises. Policy changes, multilevel governance and political opportunities (Special Issue Proposal)
Deliverable 3.2 (divided in two parts) are special issue proposals edited by Céline Cantat (Sciences Po), Hélène Thiollet (Sciences Po), and Antoine Pécoud (Sciences Po). D3.2a aspires at contributing to the ongoing scholarship on crises, which have developed substantially, but in which migration-related issues tend to remain under-researched. D3.2b aims at deepening our understanding of the politics of migration crises beyond migration and asylum policies, by focusing on the role of non-state actors in the framing of migration crises, their governance and the responses brought to them.
An initial output of MAGYC’s third work package, this working paper authored by Iraklis Dimitriadis (UNIMI) seeks to survey the existing empirical evidence on the construction and reproduction of the “crisis-invasion” discourse in Italy with reference to the arrival and settlement of refugees since 2012.
Based on a research on the asylum governance in Italy, this policy brief authored by Iraklis Dimitriadis and Maurizio Ambrosini (UNIMI) looks at narratives of experts active at different levels, analyzing how they make sense of conflictual situations related to the arrival and settlement of asylum seekers and refugees in local communities.
D3.7 Working paper “Turkish perceptions of the EU migration deal based on Turkish Parliamentary Debates”
This working paper authored by Samet Apaydin and Meltem Muftuler-Bac (Sabanci University) provides an in-depth analysis of the Turkish Parliamentary debates over the Syrian refugees, and assesses how the Turkish migration deal with the EU has highlighted the existing political cleavages in the country. It demonstrates the extent to which migration governance challenges are projected onto political deliberations at the domestic level, while illuminating the domestic-foreign linkages over migratory policies.
WP4: Comparing Crises
The first deliverable of Work Package 4, by Christiane Fröhlich (GIGA) and Lea Müller-Funk (GIGA), addresses the perceptions of Northern migration crisis discourses in the Global South. It analyses how two major migration deals – the EU-Turkey Deal 2016 and the EU-Migration Deal 2018 – were perceived in countries of first asylum which neighbour conflict countries such as Libya and Syria.
This policy brief from Mattea Weihe (Sea-Watch e.V.), Lea Müller-Funk (GIGA) and Mounkaila Abdou (Université Abdou Moumouni Niamey) provides a critical discussion of the impact of Law 36-2015, which criminalises transit migration to Libya and Algeria through Niger, and especially its impact on Nigerien migrants.
French version: “Négocier la migration circulaire entre le Niger et la Libye : entre politiques et non-politiques”
In this deliverable, Nicole Hirt (GIGA) analyses the mass exodus of Eritreans as a consequence of the open-ended National Service and the government’s state stabilization strategies based on diaspora-exploitation and provides a critical discussion of EU responses to Eritrea’s policies.
This deliverable, by Christiane Fröhlich (GIGA) and André Bank (GIGA), provides a critical discussion of the Jordan and Lebanon Compacts five years after their creation and ten years after the beginning of the Syrian war, and draws lessons for future EU cooperation with key host states for forced migrants in the Middle East.
WP5: The Effect of Asylum Seekers’ Concentration in Space in Times of Crisis
This deliverable is an initial output of WP5 addressing data gaps in mapping refugees’ and asylum seekers’ concentrations. The compilation of available data on capacities, facility types and coordinates of asylum seekers’ sites allows detecting concentration hotspots across the EU and analysing these hotspots further in Task 2 and 3 within the WP5. The detection and analysis of these hotspots are crucial for the project since they represent potential challenges for governance of refugee integration and by comparing different success and failure stories of concentration governance we plan to draw policy recommendations for successful migration governance and contribute to the discussion on redistribution quota. The data was compiled with the help of national authorities (immigration offices, ministries) amongst the EU member states and project partners and are available in an open access mode following the Datawrapper links in the Annex. The size of the dots in the maps represents the capacities – the bigger the dot, the more asylum seekers are located in the facility. Different colours indicate different facility types.
WP6: Multi-Scalar Study of the Response
D6.1 Working paper “Broad literature review o the multi-scalar policy practices in relation to migration and integration within the EU”
In this working paper, Iraklis Dimitriadis (UNIMI), Minke Hajer (UNIMI), Elena Fontanari (UNIMI) and Mine Islar (ULund) provide a broad explorative literature study for understanding multi-scalar interactions of the immigration governance at the local level by civil society actors, transnational organizations, city-city collaborations.
WP7: The Displacement Continuum
D7.1. Report ” ‘Even if they reopened the airports’ Barriers to cross-border movement expose Yemenis to repeated internal displacement “
In this report published in the frame of “The Invisible Majority” series from IDMC, Schadi Semnani (IDMC) and Chloé Sydney (IDMC) seek to better understand the relationship between internal displacement and cross-border movement. The study is based on 147 interviews with Yemenis displaced both inside and outside the country. It explores the emigration environment and migration interface within which aspirations and abilities for cross-border movement are defined, and assesses the return outlook of displaced Yemenis.
Building on previous research by the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre which showed that many returning migrants are internally displaced after arriving back in their country of origin, this study from lead author Chloé Sidney (IDMC) and Preeti Dhillon (IDMC) explores the impact of voluntary and forced return policies and programmes on the sustainability of return and reintegration to countries of origin, and the resulting risk of new displacement or secondary migration.
Returning migrants in Nigeria are at risk of new displacement or secondary migration, regardless of whether the return was voluntary or forced. This policy brief from Chloé Sydney (IDMC) provides recommendations to enhance the sustainability of return and reintegration of all returning migrants in Nigeria.
WP8: External Dimensions of the Crisis
D8.1 Externalization Policies and their Impacts on Migrant and Refugee Flows to Europe during the “Crisis.” A preliminary study
In this preliminary study on the impact of European externalisation policies on migrant and refugee flows, Thibaut Jaulin, Alice Mesnard, Filip Savatic, Jean-Noel Senne and Hélène Thiollet, under the lead of SciencesPo, aim to measure how migrant and refugee flows respond to such European externalization of migration and asylum management. The study covers the period of the so-called “migrant” or “refugee crisis” of 2015, a unique context in which to study the relationship between migration policies and flows.
In this research note, Filip Savatic, Hélène Thiollet, Thibaut Jaulin, Alice Mesnard, and Jean-Noël Senne present a novel method to distinguish between border crossers who would likely be granted asylum in destination states (“likely refugees”) and those who would not (“likely irregular migrants”) given asylum acceptance rates. Their findings reveal how border policies start with the production and use of migration numbers as well as the importance of critically assessing migration categories in public statistics.
D8.3 Migrants, Refugees, and Policies: A Gravitational Analysis of Irregular Population Movements in Times of Crisis
In this policy brief, Alice Mesnard ( City University of London), Thibaut Jaulin (Sciences Po), Filip Savatic (Georgetown University), Jean-Noël Senne (University of Paris-Saclay, Orsay), and Hélène Thiollet (Sciences Po) describe key policy trends regarding the development of externalization policies in the last two decades and assess their impact on irregular migration flows to Europe.
During the 2015 ‘migration crisis’, the Horn of Africa became the target of the European Union’s (EU) external migration policy. This policy brief from Thibaut Jaulin (Sciences Po) explores the historical roots of this recent development in migration and asylum diplomacy. It shows that migration gradually became both a security and a protection concern for those foreign powers and international organizations involved in military and humanitarian operations in the sub-region in the 1990s and 2000s. It moreover examines the ways in which the expansion of EU external migration policy into the Horn since the 2015 ‘migration crisis’ has led to the mainstreaming of migration and asylum containment into foreign aid objectives.